World Cup 2026 Best Bets: My 22 June Picks

Four matches tonight, and one of them carries the weight of history. I have gone through every line on the 22 June card so you do not have to, and I am putting my name to three picks plus one I am steering you away from. As ever, the rule in this column holds: I would rather miss a winner than back a bad price. Here are my best bets, with kick-offs converted to Irish time so you know exactly when to be awake.

Four fixtures, one record on the line — my card for the night of 22 June.

Argentina v Austria — 18:00 IST, Arlington

The headline act. Argentina are 4/7 to win, Austria a tempting 5/1, the draw 3/1 (verified prices, as of 22 June; FanDuel/bet365/DraftKings via FOX Sports & CBS Sports; fractional conversion mine). Lionel Messi walks out one goal short of Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup record of 16 after his hat-trick against Algeria, and a defending champion on an eight-match winning run does not tend to stumble against a side it has never lost to.

But 4/7 is no price for a punt, and Austria are better than their tag — David Alaba marshals a disciplined back line. My angle is goals and a Messi involvement rather than the bare result. Pick: Messi to score or assist — at a tournament where he is chasing a record on a likely farewell, I cannot see him passing up the stage.

France v Iraq — 22:00 IST, Philadelphia

France are 1/12. Let me say that again: 1/12. There is no bet on the result. Iraq, at their first World Cup since 1986, shipped four to Norway in their opener and arrive in poor form; Opta give France an 88.5% win probability. Pick: France –1.5 on the handicap is the only sensible way to engage, and even then I would keep the stake small. Kylian Mbappé, already France’s all-time top scorer after his brace against Senegal, could bring up his 100th cap — back him in the scorer market if you want a France involvement at a real price. The full picture is in my France World Cup betting guide.

Norway v Senegal — 01:00 IST, East Rutherford

This is the bet of the night for me. A genuine coin-flip the books have priced as one: Norway around 5/4 (best 11/8), Senegal 9/4, the draw 13/5 (verified, as of 22 June; ESPN/aggregated best prices). Erling Haaland has scored in eleven straight competitive Norway games and the side have won their last eleven on the bounce — yet Senegal, beaten only by France, have the better squad on paper. Pick: Haaland anytime scorer. Eleven in a row is a streak you back until it breaks, and the price will be far kinder than Norway’s match line.

Jordan v Algeria — 04:00 IST, Santa Clara

One for the insomniacs. Algeria are 4/9 with Riyad Mahrez restored to the XI; Jordan are 21/4 having lost to Austria. The value, if there is any, is in the cards and corners rather than a 4/9 favourite. No bet from me here — by 4am even my discipline is asleep.

My Verdict

Three plays I am happy to put my name to: Messi to score or assist, France –1.5, and the one I like most, Haaland anytime scorer in New Jersey. Skip the Jordan game unless you genuinely cannot sleep. Every price here was taken on the morning of 22 June and the lines will drift before kick-off, so confirm before you stake. New customers can find these markets in € with fractional odds at MrPacho or ZotaBet — 18+, bet responsibly, and never chase a 4am loss.

For the bigger storyline behind tonight, read my piece on Messi’s record chase; for the title market, see my World Cup odds explained guide.